Date: Sunday, November 16, 2026
Time: 8:00 PM GMT (9:00 PM WAT)
Location: Grand Stade de Marrakech, Marrakech, Morocco
All eyes will be on Marrakech with anticipation on November 16, 2026, as two African footballing powerhouses, Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of Congo, lock horns in the final of the 2026 World Cup African Playoffs. This isn't just a match; it's a battle for a ticket to the FIFA intercontinental playoffs in March 2026.
We’ve crunched the numbers to bring you an in-depth, data-driven preview of what promises to be an epic encounter, using Opta and wyscout analytics.
The Road to Marrakech: A Look Back at the Semi-Finals
Both Nigeria and DR Congo navigated challenging semi-final clashes to reach this pivotal moment.
Nigeria's Journey: The Super Eagles demonstrated their attacking prowess and tactical flexibility in their semi-final victory against a resilient Gabon side. Their 4 -1 win, while seemingly comfortable, saw moments of intense pressure and the game had dragged 1 - 1 to extra time, before the Nigerian attacking prowess began to connect properly.
Our Wyscout data indicates a slightly higher possession Share of 51% for Nigeria, translating into 16 Shots Total, with 9 Shots on Target. Their Expected Goals (xG) for the match stood at a formidable 2.65, suggesting their offensive output was indeed sustainable. Key to their success was the relentless pressing from their DMs leading to a PPDA (Passes Per Defensive Action) of 8.2, significantly disrupting Gabon's build-up play and planned counter attack.
DR Congo's Triumph: The Leopards, conversely, showcased their defensive solidity and opportunistic attacking in a hard-fought 1-0 victory over Cameroon, scored at the nick of time 89 minutes. Despite having less possession (45%), their clinical finishing and robust backline proved decisive. Their xG for the semi-final was 1.80, indicating a higher conversion rate than their opponents.
Wyscout metrics highlight their defensive discipline, with 45 Tackles Won and an impressive 78% Aerial Duels Won, demonstrating their physical dominance.
Infographic: Metrics based on Semi Final Performances
Team Strengths & Weaknesses: A Deeper Dive
Nigeria: The Super Eagles' Soaring Ambitions
Strengths:
Attacking Firepower: Nigeria's frontline is a nightmare for defenders. Led by Victor Osimhen (Galatasaray), whose xG per 90 minutes in the playoffs stands at an astounding 0.75, they possess pace, power, and clinical finishing. Ademola Lookman (Atalanta) provides creativity and dribbling flair, with an average of 3.5 Successful Dribbles per 90. Nigeria set up with an alternative striker in Akor Adam and their Sevilla connection Chidera Ejuke can be devastating pair against opponent in the run of play.
Midfield Engine Room: Nigeria will be missing partnership of Wilfred Ndidi (Besikta) and Alex Iwobi (Fulham) provides a crucial balance. Ndidi’s accumulated Yellow cards takes him off this game.
Alternative, maybe, Raphael Onyedika (Brugge) and Alex Iwobi. Onyedika's defensive acumen is evident in his 8.5 Recoveries per 90, while Iwobi’s passing range (88% Pass Accuracy) dictates the tempo.
Tactical Versatility: Coach Eric Chelle has shown a willingness to adapt formations, often switching between a 4-4-2 and a 4-2-3-1, making them unpredictable.
Weaknesses:
Defensive Concentration Lapses: While generally solid, the Nigerian defense can occasionally lose focus, particularly during set-pieces. Our data shows a slight vulnerability in Aerial Duels Lost within their own box (15% in the semi-final).
Dependence on Star Players: An injury or off-day for Osimhen and now, Ndidi's absence could significantly impact their overall performance.in the build up play and commanding DM line impact.
DR Congo: The Resilient Leopards
Strengths:
Defensive Organization: The Leopards are notoriously difficult to break down. Chancel Mbemba (Marseille) is a towering presence at the back, with an average of 5.2 Clearances per 90. Their collective defensive effort is highlighted by their low Shots on Target Conceded (average 3.0 per game in the playoffs).
Counter-Attacking Threat: With pacey wingers like Yoane Wissa (Brentford) and the dynamic Fiston Mayele (Pyramids FC), DR Congo can transition quickly and exploit space. Mayele's clinical finishing boasts a 30% Shot Conversion Rate.
Physicality and Stamina: They are a physically imposing team, capable of maintaining high intensity for the full 90 minutes, often dominating aerial battles and winning second balls.
Weaknesses:
Limited Creativity in Midfield: While defensively sound, their midfield sometimes lacks the incisiveness to unlock stubborn defenses, often relying on individual brilliance or long balls. Their average Key Passes per game is 2.8, lower than Nigeria's 4.5.
xG Underperformance: While clinical in the semi-final, historically, DR Congo has sometimes underperformed their xG, suggesting a slight inconsistency in creating high-quality chances.
Star Players & Key Match-ups
Victor Osimhen (Nigeria) vs. Chancel Mbemba (DR Congo): The ultimate striker-defender battle. Osimhen's movement and finishing against Mbemba's strength and positioning will be crucial.
Raphael Onyedika (Nigeria) vs. Samuel Moutoussamy (DR Congo): The midfield battle for dominance. Onyedika's ball-winning prowess against Moutoussamy's disruptive pressing will dictate who controls the tempo.
Ademola Lookman (Nigeria) vs. Joris Kayembe (DR Congo): A clash of wingers. Lookman's dribbling and creativity against Kayembe's defensive discipline on the flank.
Strategic Pitch Data & Style of Play
Nigeria's Offensive Shape: Expect Nigeria to utilize wide areas effectively, with their full-backs pushing high to provide width and deliver crosses. Their Attacking Third Passes average 120 per game, indicating their intent to penetrate the opposition box. Their Pass Map Analysis shows a strong emphasis on short, intricate passes in the final third, aiming to create openings for Osimhen.
DR Congo's Defensive Structure: The Leopards will likely adopt a compact 4-4-2 or 4-3-2 -1 formation out of possession, aiming to deny space in central areas and force Nigeria wide. Their Defensive Line Height analysis reveals a relatively deep block, comfortable sitting back and absorbing pressure before launching quick counter-attacks. Their Ball Recoveries are predominantly in their own half (65%), signifying their deep defensive setup.
Infographic Analysis: Battle of the Metrics
Prediction: A Narrow Victory for the Super Eagles
Based on our comprehensive analysis, Nigeria's superior attacking depth and slightly higher xG metrics give them a marginal edge. However, DR Congo's defensive resilience and counter-attacking threat mean this will be a finely balanced affair.
Predicted Outcome: Nigeria 2 - 1 DR Congo
We anticipate a cagey first half, with both teams sizing each other up. Nigeria’s relentless pressure and individual brilliance, particularly from Osimhen, should eventually break down the Congolese defense. However, the Leopards are more than capable of snatching a goal on the break.
Nigeria will be up against a physically imposing team. It's like playing against giants, DR Congo maybe winning most aerial duel in the defense, and if they take it up on set pieces like corner kick, it may be significant danger for Nigeria's defense line. The return of Ajayi to the Nigerian team, may seek to resolve this challenge in the defense set up.
Eric Chelle must seek to protect his star striker Victor Osimhen from injury as the Congolese defense will be physically strong and imposing on him. A subtle decoy and creative emphasis between Ademola Lookman and Amor Adams may wreck the havoc.
DR Congo, will seek to weigh down and tire out the Nigerian side, then press hard at the last 15mins of the game. If the Congolese score first, it will be very difficult for the Nigerians break their defense set up.
Nigeria must first to score first, between 35 to 45 minutes of first half or between 47 - 60 minutes of the game.
This promises to be a thrilling encounter, a true testament to the passion and talent of African football, with Nigeria ultimately securing their place for the Intercontinental Playoffs in March 2026 - on the road to the World Cup.
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