Arsenal Ranked Outsiders to Win the League But Only A Fool Would Write them Off - According to Opta Stats

 

The popular adage is that we don’t get to the business end of the football season until after Easter. But with that being three weeks away and the top of the Premier League being as close as it is, it feels like we are in the business end of the season right now.

Looking back on the weekend, it is difficult to make a case for any other side other than Arsenal being the winners from this round of games.

A late winner at The Emirates against a tricky Brentford side on Saturday night sent them top of the table and then they were able to sit back and watch their two rivals - Liverpool and Manchester City - battle out a 1-1 draw at Anfield, a result that kept them top.

So after arguably the biggest weekend of the season so far, are we any closer to knowing who will lift the title in May?

With all three teams having played 28 games, Arsenal sit top on goal difference on 64 points ahead of Liverpool and with Manchester City a point behind.

Arsenal are top of the table with 10 games to go... but the stats have them as outsiders to win the league but only a fool would write them off

Manchester City remain the favourites to win the Premier League according to the stats - but is that right?

Yet after Sunday’s game Sky Sports showed a graphic with all three side’s remaining fixtures and their chance of winning the league according to stats company Opta.

They give Manchester City a 46 percent chance of lifting the title, whereas Liverpool are given a 35 percent chance of making it a perfect farewell for Jurgen Klopp and top of the table Arsenal are given just a 19 percent chance of winning the league.

So why is this? After all Arsenal have won all eight games in the Premier League since the turn of the year, and have scored 33 goals in the process - surely they are in the box seat at this stage of the season?

One thing to note is that following the weekend’s results, Arsenal’s chances have increased according to Opta as their chances of winning the league have risen by six percent from 13 percent before the weekend, while Manchester City’s chances are down six percent from 51 percent while Liverpool’s are down a tiny bit but are essentially the same as before the weekend.

Arsenal have been perfect so far in 2024 but the feeling is that they will have to go close to replicating that form for the remaining games of the season if they are to win the league.

Opta will have factored in the remaining 10 fixtures for all three title challengers and have deemed that Arsenal have the hardest run-in.

There is one school of thought that says it is harder for London sides to win the league due to the number of derbies they have to play each season - and despite Arsenal’s last two league defeats coming at the hands of West Ham and Fulham - there is nothing to prove that to be true.

That said, of Arsenal’s remaining games, two are against Tottenham and Chelsea which are probably more of the Gunners’ more intense rivalries in the capital, plus trips to Manchester United and Brighton. 

On that note, Liverpool have to go to both Old Trafford and Goodison Park before the end of the season. City don’t have any intense rivalries in their final games but they do have to play Arsenal at home at the end of the month, as well as play Tottenham away - and they have lost all four Premier League visits to the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium (although they did win there in the FA Cup this year).

All three sides have to play Tottenham, Aston Villa, Brighton and Wolves before the season is out and it is not beyond the realms of possibility that all four of those sides will be pushing for European places, potentially meaning those games have something riding on them for both sides